Thursday, September 17, 2009

What does 0-2 mean?

This is going to be short, but David Haugh tweets:

Must-win looming for Bears? Only 13.8 percent of 0-2 teams have made playoffs since 1990 (STATS, Inc.)..that is an equation for urgency

The actual number is 22 out of 160 teams if you are checking my math

I have no doubt that Haugh is right, but I don't think people should make more of these numbers than they're worth. Most teams that start 0-2 are bad teams, and of course they miss the playoffs. Obviously you're at a disadvantage if you're down two games in the playoff race after two weeks, but it's not a kiss of death.

I think the Bears are a reasonably talented team, and how many of those 160 teams were as talented as the Bears? Half? A third? I don't know, but the odds start looking a lot better if you filter out the teams that you know are bad.

It would be a bad thing if the Bears started 0-2, but if you thought they were a playoff team before, that statistic really shouldn't change your thinking on the subject.