Predicting the rest of the season

I should have posted predictions before the season started, but I didn't, so I'll go ahead and do it now. I'm giving a percentage chance (based mostly off the top of my head) of the team winning each game and simply adding them up to come up with a total. Obviously I'll add in their 1-1 record to that to come up with a final prediction. And for the record, I'd have probably given them about a 40% chance of victory against both the Packers at Green Bay and the Steelers, so I'd have picked them to be about 1-1 right now, with it being more likely that they'd end up 0-2 than 2-0.

@ Seattle - 60%
Lions - 70%
@ Falcons - 30%
@ Bengals - 50%
Browns - 60%
Cardinals - 50%
@ 49ers - 40%
Eagles - 40%
@ Vikings - 30%
Rams - 70%
Packers - 60%
@ Ravens - 40%
Vikings - 40%
@ Lions - 60%

I wouldn't give the Bears that good of a chance to beat the Seahawks in Seattle, except that it looks like Hasselbeck probably won't play. I feel like I might be a little high on the Bears' odds against the Cardinals, too. The Bears may have a better shot than I'm giving them credit for against the Vikings, especially at home, but right now the Vikings seem, to me, like one of the best teams in the league. And I think I might be overestimating the Falcons a little bit, too - they're a good team, but I'm not sure they're quite as good as I'm giving them credit for here.

So, adding all that up, it's 7.0 wins over the remainder of the season for a final record of 8-8. If you used my initial 40% shot against the Packers and Steelers, I'd have predicted 7.8-8.2. That sounds about right to me. I think the Bears are a decent team and should be around 8-8, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won more or less than that, but I'd have bet the under if you forced me to.

Still, even though that prediction is kind of pessimistic, I'm hopeful, too. All the Bears need to do is steal a game or two against the Vikings, Falcons, Eagles or Ravens and win the games they should win to have a good shot at the playoffs. I've got six games I think they "should" win, although I'm not hugely confident they will win all of them. But if they do, that's seven wins. There are eight games I think are tossups or probable losses - if the Bears go 3-5 in those games, that's ten wins and a good shot at the playoffs.

Don't get excited, Bears fans

Sure, the Bears won today. Against the defending champions. And Cutler was great. But Kyle Orton and the Broncos won by more. Never mind that they were playing a worse team and Orton managed to complete just over half his passes, the man is a winner and Jay Cutler is not.

This thread is for discussing how the season would be different if the Bears still had Orton instead of Cutler. You may also consider how it would be different if they merely had mini-Orton.