Another NFC Norris Blog Featuring Joe Montana

Do the Packers have a bye week this weekend? I haven't heard if there's a game

2009-09-29T11:46:00.004-05:00

Really though, the game this week should be tons of fun to watch, despite the fact I'm expecting it to be a bloodbath. I don't have any ill will towards Favre for joining the Vikings - it's pretty much the perfect situation for him since he won't feel like he has to carry that offense. I think Rodgers is a better QB than Favre to run the Packers current pass-oriented offense and I trust him more than Favre under pressure at this point. Which is a good thing, since the Packers pass blocking has been horrible this season and the Vikes might have the best defensive line in football. The Packers defense has been spotty thus far too - facing Adrian Peterson and a under-less-pressure Favre isn't a good recipe for a defense that is still learning its new scheme. I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers pick off Favre once or twice, but the Minnesota offense is likely to have its way with this team, and they're playing at home. I think the Packers easily lose this game by double digits.

Predicting the rest of the season

2009-09-22T10:08:00.004-05:00

I should have posted predictions before the season started, but I didn't, so I'll go ahead and do it now. I'm giving a percentage chance (based mostly off the top of my head) of the team winning each game and simply adding them up to come up with a total. Obviously I'll add in their 1-1 record to that to come up with a final prediction. And for the record, I'd have probably given them about a 40% chance of victory against both the Packers at Green Bay and the Steelers, so I'd have picked them to be about 1-1 right now, with it being more likely that they'd end up 0-2 than 2-0.

@ Seattle - 60%
Lions - 70%
@ Falcons - 30%
@ Bengals - 50%
Browns - 60%
Cardinals - 50%
@ 49ers - 40%
Eagles - 40%
@ Vikings - 30%
Rams - 70%
Packers - 60%
@ Ravens - 40%
Vikings - 40%
@ Lions - 60%

I wouldn't give the Bears that good of a chance to beat the Seahawks in Seattle, except that it looks like Hasselbeck probably won't play. I feel like I might be a little high on the Bears' odds against the Cardinals, too. The Bears may have a better shot than I'm giving them credit for against the Vikings, especially at home, but right now the Vikings seem, to me, like one of the best teams in the league. And I think I might be overestimating the Falcons a little bit, too - they're a good team, but I'm not sure they're quite as good as I'm giving them credit for here.

So, adding all that up, it's 7.0 wins over the remainder of the season for a final record of 8-8. If you used my initial 40% shot against the Packers and Steelers, I'd have predicted 7.8-8.2. That sounds about right to me. I think the Bears are a decent team and should be around 8-8, and I wouldn't be surprised if they won more or less than that, but I'd have bet the under if you forced me to.

Still, even though that prediction is kind of pessimistic, I'm hopeful, too. All the Bears need to do is steal a game or two against the Vikings, Falcons, Eagles or Ravens and win the games they should win to have a good shot at the playoffs. I've got six games I think they "should" win, although I'm not hugely confident they will win all of them. But if they do, that's seven wins. There are eight games I think are tossups or probable losses - if the Bears go 3-5 in those games, that's ten wins and a good shot at the playoffs.

Don't get excited, Bears fans

2009-09-20T18:18:00.004-05:00

Sure, the Bears won today. Against the defending champions. And Cutler was great. But Kyle Orton and the Broncos won by more. Never mind that they were playing a worse team and Orton managed to complete just over half his passes, the man is a winner and Jay Cutler is not.

This thread is for discussing how the season would be different if the Bears still had Orton instead of Cutler. You may also consider how it would be different if they merely had mini-Orton.

Predictions thread

2009-09-18T15:49:00.004-05:00

Since I'll be largely internet-less this weekend while traveling, here's my prediciton for this weekend's Packers game:

Packers 27, Bungles 13

Cedric Benson stinks and could barely run against Denver's shambolic run defense, and Palmer doesn't have a lot of targets to throw to. I think the OL gets things together this week and Barbre has a confidence-building game against not-Ogunleye. Sadly I won't be able to watch this since I'll be in the heart of Redskins country, who should have a fun time blowing out StL at home. At least someone will be beating a St. Louis team this weekend

What does 0-2 mean?

2009-09-17T09:40:00.004-05:00

This is going to be short, but David Haugh tweets:

Must-win looming for Bears? Only 13.8 percent of 0-2 teams have made playoffs since 1990 (STATS, Inc.)..that is an equation for urgency

The actual number is 22 out of 160 teams if you are checking my math

I have no doubt that Haugh is right, but I don't think people should make more of these numbers than they're worth. Most teams that start 0-2 are bad teams, and of course they miss the playoffs. Obviously you're at a disadvantage if you're down two games in the playoff race after two weeks, but it's not a kiss of death.

I think the Bears are a reasonably talented team, and how many of those 160 teams were as talented as the Bears? Half? A third? I don't know, but the odds start looking a lot better if you filter out the teams that you know are bad.

It would be a bad thing if the Bears started 0-2, but if you thought they were a playoff team before, that statistic really shouldn't change your thinking on the subject.

Atari Bigby out ~4 weeks, Raji to make regular season debut, OL stuff

2009-09-16T22:16:00.007-05:00

Packers starting SS Atari Bigby will miss at least 4 weeks with a knee injury suffered in Sunday's game. Bigby is not all that great in coverage but he does hit very hard. APC worries that the defense will be much more conservative without him, as it was when Nick Collins was out briefly in the Bears game. Charles Woodson played some safety last year but IIRC it was pretty much a disaster. Aaron Rouse (who took out Dez Clark in last week's game) is likely to get the bulk of the playing time.

In other news, McCarthy is still sticking with RT/RD (right tackle/revolving door) Allen Barbre, despite his terrible performance v Ogunleye last week. One thing that I've wondered about is whether or not they would/should bring back former RT (and former Badger) Mark Tauscher, who was great for many seasons for the Pack is still available. The big question is whether or not he's recovered from his ACL surgery in Dec 2007. It looks pretty damning that all 32 NFL teams passed on him though.

Packers first round pick NT B.J. Raji will make his regular season debut this week against the Mighty Bengals of Cincinnati. He was out last week with an ankle injury, but practiced as normal all this week.

What I'm taking away from last night's game

2009-09-14T10:29:00.004-05:00

Last night's loss sucked, but it doesn't bother me that much. I don't have too high of hopes for the Bears this season. As long as Cutler, Forte, Olsen and Chris Williams get to play together and improve I'll be happy. The playoffs would be nice, but a loss doesn't concern me, just because I don't have huge expectations.

But here are my thoughts on last night's Bears/Packers game:

1) Devin Hester is a legitimate receiver now. That's not to say he's going to be a pro bowler, but playing against a pretty good secondary, he caught all four balls that went his way for 90 yards and a touchdown, and he made a couple of nice plays (the stiff-arm and staying in bounds on the pass near the sideline) to do it.

2) The rest of the receiving corps sucks. Earl Bennett might have some potential, but nobody besides Hester really gave Cutler any help. They cut off their routes early, resulting in some turnovers, and it seemed like anything Cutler threw that didn't hit his receivers directly in the numbers was dropped. It's hard to win games with receiver play like that.

3) The defensive line looks better. They were doing a good job hurrying Rodgers and making a lot of plays. With the linebacker corps banged up and the secondary simply not that good, that's going to be necessary to have any real success on defense this season - a good line can cover up a lot of deficiencies elsewhere, and the line may be the Bears' best defensive unit after last night's injuries. Which brings me to point four...

4) Brian Urlacher may have played his last game as a Bear. He may not have, too, this is totally speculation on my part. But if his season is really over, I wonder if he sticks around. He's still a good player, but he's an expensive one, and he's definitely not the player he once was. If he misses all of this season with an injury, I wonder if the Bears will want to start a 32-year-old middle linebacker who hasn't seen live action in a full year. I glanced at the guaranteed money in his deal and it looks like the Bears could probably cut him if they wanted to.

5) The Vikings are going to win this division going away. The Bears lost the turnover margin by 4, yet they almost won the game. The Packers' 3-4 defense is a work in progress, and their offensive line just doesn't look to be that great. Rodgers is a really good quarterback, but last night showed that if you hurry him he's not going to be very accurate. That's not surprising, but against a secondary that forces you to be more accurate than the Bears' secondary, I think things could get ugly if he has to keep throwing on the run.

Just as I thought it couldn't get any worse.....

2009-09-14T09:06:00.003-05:00

Brian Urlacher will have wrist surgery this morning.
In response, and I think I speak for both Bears writers here at ANNB, we say:

1. FUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKK!!!!

and 2.

Edit: Urlacher Probably done for season. The Bears are superfucked.

FUCK, FUCK-FUCKITY-SHIT-BALLS-COCKSHIT-MOTHERFUCKING-GODAMMIT-BULLSHIT-BALLS-CUNT-ASS!!!

This sucks balls.

Post-game, Packers-style

2009-09-14T00:44:00.011-05:00

That was an exciting ending to what was a crummy game for both offenses. Here's what I took away from the game

Edit by JC: I feel this sums up b's feelings right now

Rodgers.... Shoryuken!!!!
(dying laughing)

Rogers animation courtest KSK

Positives
The new Packers defense looked really good, picking Cutler 4 times and generally all over the backfield. Cutler's QB rating for the game was an abysmal 43.2, and they also held Forte to 2.2 yards per carry. Cullen Jenkins had an especially good game, which was a nice surprise, though it will be interesting to see how much of that was due to Orlando Pace and the rest of the decomposing left side of the Bears offensive line. All the wild predictions about the Bears tight ends running all over GB's new 3-4 defense were for naught - Clark and Olsen had one catch each for a total of 31 yards, and the Packers were all over Olsen the entire game. They were all over Hester for the most part too, though it would have been a much more interesting game if Cutler and Bennett had more success with the many throws that went his way. Still, I think it was a very promising game for the defense. We also got to see a D-lineman (Jolly) get a gift INT, which is always fun to watch. It's too bad he only made it 2 yards - watching linemen run is hilarious.

Negatives
The Bears defense was also all over the backfield, sacking Rogers 4 times and generally making him uncomfortable out there. Barbre was being beaten like a drum by Ogunleye the entire game, and didn't see th get much help when doing it. Rogers accuracy was way down in this game, but he was right on with that last TD pass. I don't know what the Vegas line for this game was, but the Packers going for 2 there at the end was a bit of a head-scratcher, as you'd think the change of them missing the converstion wouldn't be worth the risk. I was a little bummed by the play-calling, since it didn't seem like Rogers was throwing downfield nearly enough considering how banged up the Bears secondary is, but I guess that had a lot to do with the Bears pass rush today.

I think it's an easy prediction to make that the Bears, Packers, and Vikings will all hold serve at home when they play each other.

Everyone take a deep breath it was one game. One horrible, sloppy game.

2009-09-13T23:33:00.002-05:00

Both teams played really badly, but the Packers came out on top. Pack 1-0, Bears 0-1

There isn't really much else to say before the Jump so lets get right to it.

Cutler started really poorly and finished really poorly. He had 4 interceptions and a sub 50% completion percnetage. Rogers also started out poorly, but played decently at the end of the game. He only threw for 5.4 yards per attempt though which is very unimpressive .

Several key receivers played badly for the Bears and Donald Driver was a non factor for the Pack. Dez Clark stopped on a route that led to an interception, Earl Bennet and Greg Olson dropped a few balls, Johnny Knox had one impressive play and then got blown down by a strong breeze as Al Harris picked off Cutler for the 4th time. Greg Jennings and Devin Hester were the best players on the field today. Hester made some impressive moves in space and caught an easy touchdown pass as did Jennings.

Both defenses played well and got lots of pressure on the opposing QB. Cutler was able to get around a few of the rushes, but the pressure was constant. Omiyale and Pace blew chunks. The Bears had 4 sacks and the Pack had 2, but there was even more pressure than the sack count would indicate.
The Bears defense really played poorly when it counted in the 2nd half and I'm going to chalk that up to Urlacher's wrist injury. The pressure was good to see, but the Secondary had quite a few breakdowns. Melissa was right about Danielle Manning, he sucks at coverage. Sucks really hard.

The Bears Stalled 2 drives in the Red Zone. On one particular red zone excersion they tried to run 2 downs when Forte was going no where and had a 1 receiver pass route on third down. Cutler was also picked off by a lineman on a well setup screen, Forte did not setup where he should have been.

Forte was bad as were all the Bears running backs. They averaged 2.8 yrds per carry. The line sucked it hard... really hard. After Urlacher went out Ryan Grant had a little more success but still only averaged 3.5 yards for the game.

Rogers didn't really move the Packs offense all that much as he only averaged 5.4 yards per pass, but he had a nice finish.

Overall it was a shitty football game that the Pack pulled out. Here's to better luck next time for the Bears and hoping that the Pack burns in hell :P

Edit/Addendum:

As B point out in the comment Urlacher has a dislocated wrist. No timetable for his return. Booooooooo!!

Bears- Packers Game Thread

2009-09-13T19:08:00.002-05:00

Let me just do a Recap before we get this shindig started.
Vikes won, so the early battle to keep up with the the Minnesota Burts begins.
The Lions predictably lost and Badly. Stafford did not look good.
And the Niners pull off an upset. Very impressive display by their defense as well as Shaun Hill. Cheers to Ryno and DJ.

So, in the big Sunday night game it's Bears vs. Packers. The old NFC rivals. No two teams in the NFL have played each other more times. Cutler vs. Rogers. Bears renewed defense vs. Packers new 3-4 defense. It's gonna be a fucking blast. Get excited!!!

Chicago (0-0) at Green Bay (0-0)

Game info: 8:20 pm EDT Sun Sep 13, 2009
TV: NBC
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

FORECASTED WEATHER
Forecast for Sunday, September 13, 2009
Lambeau Field Green Bay, WI Updated: 9/13/09 2:45 PM ET	Lo: 54°F Hi: 80°F Precip: 0%

Bears:

Regular Offense
POS	STARTER	2nd	3rd	4th
WR	Earl Bennett	Devin Aromashodu Q	Johnny Knox
TE	Desmond Clark	Greg Olsen	Kellen Davis	Michael Gaines
LT	Orlando Pace	Lance Louis	Frank Omiyale
LG	Frank Omiyale	Josh Beekman
C	Olin Kreutz
RG	Roberto Garza
RT	Chris Williams	Kevin Shaffer
WR	Devin Hester	Rashied Davis	Juaquin Iglesias	Brandon Rideau
QB	Jay Cutler	Caleb Hanie
FB	Jason McKie	Jason Davis
RB	Matt Forte	Adrian Peterson	Garrett Wolfe

Base 4-3 D

POS

STARTER

2nd

3rd

4th

LDE

LDT

RDT

RDE

WLB

MLB

SLB

Charles Tillman Q

Packers:

Regular Offense
POS	STARTER	2nd	3rd	4th
WR	Greg Jennings	Jordy Nelson	Brett Swain
TE	Donald Lee	Jermichael Finley	Spencer Havner	Tory Humphrey
LT	Chad Clifton	Tony Moll	Jamon Meredith
LG	Daryn Colledge	T.J. Lang
C	Jason Spitz	Scott Wells	Brennen Carvalho
RG	Josh Sitton	Evan Dietrich-Smith
RT	Allen Barbre	Breno Giacomini
WR	Donald Driver	James Jones	Chris Francies
QB	Aaron Rodgers	Matt Flynn P	Brian Brohm
FB	Korey Hall	John Kuhn	Quinn Johnson
RB	Ryan Grant	Brandon Jackson Q	DeShawn Wynn	Kregg Lumpkin

Base 3-4 D
POS	STARTER	2nd	3rd	4th
LDE	Johnny Jolly	Jarius Wynn	Alfred Malone
NT	Ryan Pickett	B.J. Raji
RDE	Cullen Jenkins	Mike Montgomery
LOLB	Aaron Kampman	Brady Poppinga
LILB	A.J. Hawk	Desmond Bishop	Danny Lansanah
RILB	Nick Barnett	Brandon Chillar
ROLB	Jeremy Thompson	Clay Matthews	Brad Jones
CB	Charles Woodson	Will Blackmon Q	Brandon Underwood
SS	Atari Bigby	Aaron Rouse P
FS	Nick Collins	Jarrett Bush	Derrick Martin
CB	Al Harris	Tramon Williams	Joe Porter

Should be a good game. I don't even wanna guess how it goes down, but it's gonna be one hell of a ride. Pack is officially favored by 2 points, but who the fuck cares about betting lines?

Update on games and Gamethread

2009-09-13T14:30:00.009-05:00

So here is what's going on in today's games before the Bears and Pack start:

The Vikings lead the Browns 24-13
The Vikes got off to a slow start, but Favre and Peterson have really got it going for the Pack in the second half half. Brady Quinn has been alright and Lewis has had decent games, but nothing special. It looks like things are going to be rough for the Browns

Game Leaders

M
I
N

PASS:
RUSH:
REC:

Favre 13-18, 113 yds, 1 td
Peterson 19 car, 76 yds, 2 tds
Harvin 3 rec, 36 yds, 1 td

C
L
E

PASS:
RUSH:
REC:

Quinn 10-17, 72 yds, 0 tds
Lewis 11 car, 57 yds, 0 tds
Royal 3 rec, 34 yds, 0 tds

What started as a close game in the first half is now getting out of hand for the Browns.

The Lions are starting to catch up to the Saints. The Saints stormed out to an early 28-10 lead in the first half, but after a bomb from Stafford to Johnson the game is now a much closer 28-17. Stafford still has struggled with a completion percentage under 50 percent. The lions still suck and will suck all season.

Game Leaders

D
E
T

PASS:
RUSH:
REC:

Stafford 9-21, 129 yds, 0 tds
Smith 12 car, 19 yds, 1 td
Johnson 3 rec, 90 yds, 0 tds

N
O
R

PASS:
RUSH:
REC:

Brees 19-25, 235 yds, 4 tds
Bell 14 car, 80 yds, 0 tds
Bush 4 rec, 47 yds, 0 tds

Brees is still being Brees and Mike Bell is turning in a very nice game. We'll see what happens.

Leave your comments below by signing up for an Intense Debate account (free).

Edit:

Minnesota 34, Cleveland 20

Minnesota Passing
	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	RATING
B. Favre	14/21	110	5.2	1	0	95.3
T. Jackson	0/1	0	0.0	0	0	39.6
Team	14/22	85	3.9	1	0

Minnesota Rushing
	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LG
A. Peterson	25	180	7.2	3	64
P. Harvin	2	22	11.0	0	11
C. Taylor	7	17	2.4	0	8
J. Dugan	1	5	5.0	0	5
N. Tahi	1	2	2.0	0	2
T. Jackson	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	37	225	6.1	3	64

Cleveland Passing
	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	RATING
B. Quinn	21/35	205	5.9	1	1	74.1
Team	21/35	179	5.1	1	1

Cleveland Rushing
	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LG
J. Lewis	11	57	5.2	0	15
B. Quinn	2	21	10.5	0	11
J. Cribbs	3	6	2.0	0	5
J. Davis	4	5	1.3	0	2

So yeah AP is good at sports and BrittFarr had a good game. Hopefully the Bears can keep up.

San Francisco 13, Arizona 16

4th Qtr 7:39

Game Leaders

S
F
O

PASS:
RUSH:
REC:

Hill 17-30, 206 yds, 0 tds
Gore 17 car, 27 yds, 1 td
Bruce 4 rec, 74 yds, 0 tds

A
R
I

PASS:
RUSH:
REC:

Warner 19-31, 216 yds, 1 td
Wells 7 car, 29 yds, 0 tds
Hightower 10 rec, 105 yds, 0 tds

Shaun Hill is having a not bad day and Gore has been decent. The defense has been better than expected holding a high powered Arizona offense to 16 points. Well see if this post can pull one out for ole Ryno!

This might just blow some Bears fans minds

2009-09-12T23:35:00.002-05:00

It certainly did for me.
http://views.washingtonpost.com/theleague/smarterstats/2009/09/bart-scott-tackles-stops-defeats.html
Check out where one Danielle Manning is on the list of safeties.

Yes that Danielle Manning is ahead of Troy Palomalu in terms of defeats (or an effective measure of the quality of a persons tackling). Yes that's right Danielle Manning. I don't know what this means for his coverage skills (which I still think are bit weak), but it means he is a sure tackler and a somewhat useful defender. Also Urlacher and Briggs are among the few 4-3 backers who rate highly here (no surprise here I supose). Harris and Alex Brown also are very good at their repsective positions (which I suspected based on how poorly teams have run to the right end and up the middle while Harris and Alex Brown have been in Chicago).

So what do you guys (and gals) think about this? Is Danielle Manning any good in light of this new information or was it a one year fluke? Are his coverage skills still too suspect to trust him at FS?

I changed the commenting system. All new comments will go through intense debate. It's set up as a Login/User to comment thing, but I can change that if anyone wants me to.

Lovie's "Most Talented Team" and his future in Chicago

2009-09-12T19:37:00.005-05:00

David Haugh has declared that it's put up or shut up time for Lovie Smith, with the 2009 Bears to be his most talented team ever.

That's saying something, given the success of the 2006 squad that went to the Super Bowl. That team had Mike Brown, Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammed and Thomas Jones as key contributors in place of Al Afalava, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Matt Forte. Only one of those players is arguably an upgrade, and I'm not convinced Forte vs. Jones isn't a push (to be clear, I think very highly of Thomas Jones' performance as a Bear).

On the other hand, Greg Olsen plus Desmond Clark is a better tight end combination than that 2006 squad had. Jay Cutler is worlds better than Rex Grossman. Pisa Tinoisamoa is probably better than Hunter Hillenmeyer, and the offensive line has the potential to be better than it was in 2006, especially at tackle.

But really, what it comes down to isn't talent, it's age. The key members of the defense - Tommie Harris, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Adewale Ogunleye - all of them are older and have more wear on them than they did in 2006. That's why I think Haugh's article is a little disingenuous. This Bears squad may very well be more talented, but I'm not sure it's better.

Haugh makes a good point that Smith is the NFL's sixth-longest-tenured head coach, and that in the NFL it's rare to get a few chances to make the playoffs and fail. And I'm not a huge fan of Smith's. I don't understand why the coaching staff makes some of the personnel decisions it does - for example, Corey Graham's position on the depth chart - or some of the in-game decisions it does. Nor do I understand running Ron Rivera out of town.

But if Jerry Angelo really believes Lovie is the guy, the mere success or failure of this year's team shouldn't have anything to do with whether he sticks around to finish up his contract. Smith may have been handed a talented team, but he's been handed one with an aging defense and a lot of new contributors on offense. It may be that there's a nice core with which to go forward, but it's easy to imagine the defense succumbing to multiple injuries. In a division with Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson, that may keep the Bears out of the playoffs altogether. If that happens and it's because of Smith's decision, great, get rid of him. If it happens because of Angelo's decisions, I'm not sure why Haugh is so eager to cast Smith as the villain in this drama.

9/11 Memorial, Hines Ward Circle Jerk, and upcoming games

2009-09-11T11:20:00.001-05:00

Today commemorates the 8th anniversary of the 9/11. Condolensces to all who's lives were forever changed by that day. I'm not a big fan of this sort of stuff, but this is one of the things that deserves to be commemorated.

On to football.

Steelers v. Titans last night:

In a game that was shitty beyond shitty, the Steelers came out with a win on a Jeff Reed overtime field goal. It should have been over in regulation, but Hines Ward had an attrocious fumble in the last minute of the 4th quarter at about the 5 yard line. The game was everything one could expect and more. Ben Rothlisberger holding the ball for 500 seconds while making 700 pump fakes before throwing, the Steelers running game grinding to a halt, Kerry Collins having a low completion percentage, and generally good defense all around.

What I couldn't stand is NBC color man Chris Collinsworth blowing his load all over Hines Ward. The unending obsession with Ward's "toughness" is absurd. So he makes some good blocks, but him blind siding someone doesn't warrant a cutaway. He's a great receiver. You don't need to go looking for reasons to hype him up, his talent is good enough.

Games This Weekend:
The Bears play the Sunday night game versus The Pack this week. It will be a great show down between Cutler and Rogers. The Pack has the advantage on offense, the Bears on special teams and defense. I don't want to guess who wins, I'll leave that for people smarter than I am, but I hope the Bears win.

Niners play the Cardinals. We'll see if the Shaun Hill can make any kind of improvement to help out that offense, they still have Frank Gore so I suppose that's something. The defense wasn't great either. This might be a lost season, but a lot of shit can happen in the NFL so We'll see.

Vikes play Cleveland at 1:00. The Vikes are obviously favored. No running back is getting past their fatass tackles. Vikes should win this going away, but again this is football and any given Sunday and all that crap.

It doesn't matter who the Lions play, they're going to lose.

The Myth of the "Myth of the Great Bears Defense" and Things of a Footbally Nature.

2009-09-10T12:56:00.000-05:00

Welcome to the Another NFC Norris Division Blog.

Though unrivaled lardass Chris Berman came up with the NFC Norris moniker, it's a catchy name and it's stuck so we're going to stick with it too. We mainly focus conversation on the actual NFL teams in the NFC North (Bears, Packers, and Vikings), but anything NFL related or really anything at all you want to talk about is fine. We/I also will talk about the 49ers because we fucking well feel like it (dying laughing). There's going to be a statistical slant to this site so make sure you know the difference between facts and opinions =P. Swear, get angry, whatever, but keep it in good taste and try to stay sane.

Anyways onto the post.

Over the off-season I've been hearing differing thoughts on the Bears defense. There's been no actual clash with regards to these arguments, but two different sides seem to exist. There are many at ESPN/NBC/CBS/etc. that just fall back on the Bears having a good defense without any support. Then there are those who claim the Bears have a bad defense based on unweighted statistics or just subjective analysis. Like here, here, here, and some of the opinions here.

The issue with the majority on each side is the lack of objectivity and context in their analysis. The Bears defense is not a dominant defense, nor a below average defense. It is an above average defense. Here's why.

Secondary:
If you look at the Bears much maligned secondary using Football Outsiders data, you see the secondary wasn't that big of a problem. Looking at unweighted statistics, concluding the bears secondary sucked is very reasonable. They were 30th in the NFL allowing 241 passing yards per game. The unadjusted rate statistics and weighted statistics tell a different story.
From Shawn Goldman on Windy City Gridiron

Now, if you look at the numbers they had against different types of receivers, they actually did quite well. They did better than average against #1 WR's, #2 WR's, "other WR's" (i.e. 3/4/5), and TE's. They only were worse than average against RB's (where they were pretty bad). This may lead you to ask how they were below average against the pass, if they were good against everything but RB's, who don't get many passes thrown their way. The answer is simple, and right on the page those numbers come from: DVOA of defense against receivers does not include sacks or passes with no intended receiver listed. To put it another way, the problem was the Bears simply allowed too many passing plays to turn into pass attempts; they didn't get enough sacks. The numbers also bear this out as the Bears were horrendous at rushing the passer. They had a sack rate of, 5%, which was 6th worst rate in the league. This was the case despite the Bears high blitz rate. This blitzing was also probably part of the reason the RB was successful catching passes out of the backfield, as it was often the OLB's blitzing, who would otherwise be responsible for wrapping up the RB after the catch.

The 2008 Chicago Bears were 8th in Yrds/Att with a 6.6 yrd/att and 10th in Passing defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted value over average) with 1.6% value over average (for defense, the more negative the DVOA the better). So while they weren't the greatest against the pass, they weren't bad. Why weren't they better? The pass rush sucked hard, not the secondary.

If Tillman and Bowman are healthy they'll be good at the corners. Losing brown sucks, but he was pretty much done anyways. Brown was a sure tackler and excellent against the run, but he didn't have the coverage skills he used to have. Nonetheless he still could prevent the deepball. Kevin Payne, Al Afalava, and Craig Steltz provide great depth and upside at SS, but their is nothing and I mean nothing at FS. They have Daniel Manning and that's it. The last good FS the Bears had was Mike Green and even he wasn't that great.

The Linebackers:
No one is disputing this is a good group of linebackers. Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, and Pisa Tinoisamoa are a good group. I don't have access to the linebacking statistics, but Urlacher and Briggs have made this linebacking core one of the elite since they started playing together. The addition of Tinoisamoa only makes this better. He's going to be worse against the run than Hillenmeyer, but probably much better against the pass and that's where they need to make their improvement (I don't know how good he'll be on the blitz).

The Line:
This line was great at stopping the run and they were the best in the league in stuffs. The Bears had a 28% stuff rate and a 3.28 Adj. Line Yards (2nd in the league). Harris, Adams, Idonije, and co were stout up the middle and Anderson, Ogunleye, Brown, Idonije, etc were fantastic on the outside (#1 on runs to the ends on both sides) though this is likely due in part to the great linebacking core. This team (as Shawn mentioned) was 6th worst in sack rate at 5%. They just did not get to the QB and it would be nice if that would change.

Overall this defense was 7th best in league in 2008. The defense, returning most of the starters with improvement at some spots, should be a top ten defense at worst and a top 5 defense at best. With the improvement from the offense, I share the general sense of optimism regarding the 2009 Chicago Bears.

So to Rick Morrisey, Chill the fuck out!